What is Bird Flu?
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With tens of millions of poultry culled, the world has been going through one of the worst global avian flu outbreaks since late 2021. While the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says there is “no evidence so far that the virus is getting better at infecting humans or other mammals”, the health officials are now modelling scenarios of human transmission, looking at pandemic possibilities. Worryingly, the worst-case scenario could see one in 40 infected dying.
The good news is that UKHSA says there is currently no evidence that the virus behind bird flu can spread between people, despite some falling sick after contact with infected birds.
But the health officials warned that the high level of transmission in birds presents a “constant risk”.
They are now drawing up a Covid-style model, looking at two pandemic scenarios.
The UKHSA is considering a mild scenario, where the infection-fatality rate is similar to coronavirus at about 0.25 percent, and a more severe scenario similar to the 1918 outbreak, where about 2.5 percent of people who caught the virus died.
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To illustrate this, one in 400 people with the virus would die under the mild scenario, but the severe scenario could mean that one in 40 infected people would die, according to Sky News.
Even with a fairly low infection-fatality rate, a severe scenario could lead to “significant behavioural differences relative to the recent pandemic experience”, the UKHSA explained.
Furthermore, health officials are also considering how they could detect outbreaks in humans, including using Covid-style lateral flow tests.
They are also looking at ways that could determine what genetic mutations might signal an increased risk to human health.
While there were no suitable Covid vaccines when the pandemic struck, there are already several good candidates for bird flu that might help.
This comes after an 11-year-old girl in Cambodia died from H5N1 – one of the strains of the bird flu virus.
The girl’s father has also tested positive, according to Cambodia’s health minister. It is unclear whether he caught the virus from his daughter or through contact with an infected bird.
If this is an example of human-to-human transmission, it would be one of the first times that occurred.
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Although there has been some proof of people catching the virus from family members or in healthcare settings previously, the UKHSA said there was no or little evidence of “sustained” transmission between humans.
Humans rarely catch bird flu, but when they do, it is usually triggered by direct contact with infected birds.
Sylvie Briand, WHO director of global infectious hazard preparedness, said: “We are more prepared (than for Covid), but even if we are more prepared, we are not yet prepared enough.
“We need to really continue the efforts for a flu pandemic.”
What are the symptoms of bird flu?
According to the NHS, the tell-tale signs of bird flu can crop up “very quickly” and include:
- Very high temperature or feeling hot or shivery
- Aching muscles
- Headache
- Cough or shortness of breath
- Diarrhoea
- Sickness
- Stomach pain
- Chest pain
- Bleeding from the nose and gums
- Conjunctivitis.
After you’ve been infected, it usually takes between three to five days for the first symptoms to appear.
Worryingly, bird flu can trigger more “severe” complications such as pneumonia, which makes getting medical help front and centre.
Contact NHS on 111 if you experience any symptoms and have visited an area affected by bird flu in the past 10 days.
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